Art of Contrary Thinking by Humphrey Bancroft Neill

Author:Humphrey Bancroft Neill
Language: eng
Format: mobi, epub
Published: 2011-07-20T04:00:00+00:00

It is seldom realized that belief in the possibility of “scientific” business forecasts, and the forecasting mania of our time, are comparatively new phenomena. Until about 1930 serious economists were not so bold—or so naïve—as to pretend to be able to calculate the coming of booms and depressions in advance. It would not have fitted into their general view of the working of a free economy. They considered the economic future as basically dependent on unpredictable price-cost relationships and on the equally unpredictable psychological reactions of entrepreneurs. Predictions of future business conditions would have seemed to them mere charlatanry, just as predictions, say, regarding the resolutions of Congress two years from now.

The forecasting mania of our era (and the assured usefulness of contrary opinions, if I may interpolate) stems in Dr. Hahn’s view from “Keynesian economics.”

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